Council Approves Elevated Green Line, Risks, and Costs

The Green Line is the largest infrastructure project in the City’s history, and an important part of our future. But time and time again, this project has been tampered with by a Provincial government resulting in billions of dollars in cost escalations — all while they refuse to pay their fair share. My vision for the Green Line is one built with partners who can be trusted to do what is in the best interest of Calgarians.

The UCP cannot be trusted to help build the Green Line. Trying to keep the UCP at the table has cost Calgarians more than the Government of Alberta will ever contribute to this project.

My previous post outlined some technical aspects and risks associated with the alignment. Residents, businesses and property owners have not been consulted about the proposed elevated alignment, and as of now, this proposal (which is five per cent designed) has an additional $1.3 billion in costs involved.

A project that is less than five percent designed is known to cost anywhere between 50 percent to 100 per cent more than what is proposed, simply because the work is in such early stages. The downtown alignment was designed in weeks, whereas the City’s Green Line plan was designed over years.  

Visually, this is what the costs of the Council-approved July 2024 Eau Claire to Lynnwood proposal and current elevated proposals look like. While the Government of Alberta’s share of funding has not changed, the terms dictated by the Government of Alberta have changed, ruling out any underground tunneling option.

The City’s Green Line Team submitted a funding request in early 2024, outlining an estimated cost for the Eau Claire to Shepard alignment of $7.2 billion. With no additional provincial funding offered, Council approved an additional $700 million for the “Building the Core” tunneled phase from Eau Claire to Lynnwood/Milican in July 2024. Minister Dreeshen approved this plan in a letter saying we could take his word to the bank. Weeks later, Minister Dreeshen broke his word and pulled funding.

Again, to be clear, the elevated Green Line alignment insisted upon by the Province now exceeds the cost of the tunneled downtown alignment from Shepard to Eau Claire.

• Eau Claire to Lynnwood/Milican (Council-approved downtown underground tunnel alignment, July 2024):
  Total: $6.248B
• Eau Claire to Shepard (Green Line funding request, July 2024):
  Total: $7.272B
• Shepard to Downtown (Elevated Downtown Alignment):
  $6,236M – Provincial Cost Estimate
  $1,290M - Additional City-estimated cost and risk
  $450M – Eau Claire extension
  $200M – Possible MGA 534 claims
  Total: $8.176B

It would cost the City roughly $450 million to extend the alignment to Eau Claire. A 2016 analysis of elevated alignments found at the high end, property value losses incurred by an elevated alignment could total $200 million ($160 million in 2016 dollars).

As the elevated alignment through downtown Calgary is 5 per cent designed, it is all but guaranteed that the costs will increase. The Government of Alberta is putting the costs and risk of all overruns on The City of Calgary..

None of these estimates include considerations of future trade wars, tariffs, inflationary pressures and cost escalations that might occur as a result.

The City of Calgary has the least ability to raise funds, compared to the Provincial and Federal governments, relying on property taxes and user fees, and is prohibited from running budget deficits.

Unfortunately, the majority of my Council colleagues did not see an issue with these realities and voted in favour of this proposal. Several of them expressed that the funding from other orders of government is too great for them to walk away from the Green Line, no matter how much it ultimately ends up costing the City.

It should be noted that many of those same Councillors were willing to walk away in July 2024. Councillors McLean, Chu, Sharp and Chabot all opposed the tunneled option in July 2024, deeming it too expensive or risky. They have now voted enthusiastically for a riskier and more expensive alignment pushed by Minister Devin Dreeshen and the Government of Alberta. I wonder what’s changed between July 2024 and now?  

Opportunity costs

The financial commitments the City of Calgary is taking on with the current iteration of the Green Line need to be considered alongside all of the City’s capital priorities. The costs associated with this iteration of the Green Line may make investing in other areas more difficult. A few examples include:

• The RouteAhead Implementation Plan calls for $350 million in capital investment for a new bus storage and maintenance facility. These capital investments are currently planned for 2027-2028-2029 and require funding.
• The GamePlan vision document and proposed service level scenarios will be presented to the Community Development Committee on February 6, 2025.
  • To maintain current service levels, the plan outlines a need for building 38 new facilities, including 4 new Aquatics facilities, 4 new Ice Sheets, 5 new Fieldhouses, and 25 new Athletic Park Fields.
  • This is in addition to upgrades to 74 facilities and the maintenance of 46 facilities.
  • Committing to this recreation service level would require funding.
• The 2020 Infrastructure Status Report found that there was a gap of $7.73 billion dollars in unfunded infrastructure maintenance.
  • This is funding that is required to maintain the quality of City-owned assets.
  • I expect that the updated report will highlight a more substantial figure.
  • Without investing in the capital maintenance required for these assets, the costs associated with their replacement or repair continue to grow.
• Unfunded investments from previous budget adjustments – such as a Calgary Transit Night Network – may also prove difficult to fund in the future. (See pages 83-88.)

I encourage concerned residents to provide your feedback directly to Premier Smith and Minister Devin Dreeshen.