Green Line Risks and Costs: Reflecting on AECOM's Downtown Alignment

This week, City Administration outlined the due diligence required from the City before making a decision about a re-imagined Green Line.

City Administration also provided an overview of the outstanding considerations with the Government of Alberta's Green Line alignment proposed in the AECOM report, including the $1.3 billion in known costs related to the proposed alignment.

The AECOM report is available here.

The absence of an Eau Claire station is curious, as the station is detailed in the redacted AECOM report (pages 23-24) and included in two of the alignments being considered. Yet it is absent from the Government of Alberta's proposed alignment. Eau Claire was also the link to the north leg of the Green Line, which means many advocates for the north phase of the project are understandably disappointed.

Several downtown property owners and businesses have reached out to me, concerned that they were not approached or consulted about the impacts of the proposed alignment. 

The proposed alignment would remove an existing Plus-30 structure on 2 St, as well as remove the corkscrew parkade ramp next to the existing CPKC tracks.

An elevated crossing of the CPKC rail line would have to be constructed. The only comparable example we have near Calgary's downtown is the elevated Blue Line LRT crossing at 14 St & 9 Ave SW.
CABR is proposing an elevated rail OVER the CPKC right-of-way, which could conflict.

For the past few years, underground utilities have been relocated to make way for the 11 Ave / 2 St Green Line tunnel alignment. It is unclear to what extent these would now be throwaway costs, or if now-relocated utilities need to be relocated again.

Above-ground stations may require additional land to be acquired by the City. Land in downtown Calgary is generally more expensive than land elsewhere in the city.

Elevated rail could negatively impact assessed property values. Not only would this damage the City's tax base, but property owners could potentially seek compensation from the City for the reduction of their assessed property value.

Federal funding for the Green Line is through the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP), which ends on March 31st. The existing funding agreement ceases at that point, and the City would have to reapply under another fund, potentially (likely) under a new government.

Updated Green Line Timeline:

• In July of 2015, former federal minister Jason Kenney and former mayor Naheed Nenshi announced federal funding for one-third of the Green Line.  
• Calgary City Council approved Phase 1 of the Green Line in 2017. 
• Former Premier Notley inked the provincial funding agreement in 2019.  
• Following another provincial election that saw Jason Kenney become Premier, he delayed the Green Line, asking for a business case that delayed the project for another two years until 2021.  
• In May 2024, after another provincial election, Minister Devin Dreeshen threatened the province’s funding to the Green Line.  
• In July 2024, responding to the concerns expressed by the province, Council agreed to cover a greater share of the Green Line’s costs, with Minister Dreeshen and the province’s support.  
• After stating that the project was “100 per cent” secure and that Calgary Council could “bank on it,” Minister Dreeshen then flip-flopped.  
• One month later, Minister Dreeshen announced that the Government of Alberta was pulling funding for the project.
• On September 17, 2024, Council voted to wind down the Green Line project. Wind-down costs could cost up to $2.1 billion.
  
• On September 18, 2024, Premier Smith announced AECOM had been engaged to study an alternative alignment downtown. Premier Smith now mentions wanting to work with the City and having no intention of taking over the project.
• On September 20, 2024, after twice rejecting previous proposals to do so, the Government of Alberta agreed to salvage some of the existing work from the Green Line project. A Reimagined Green Line Working Group is established, including Councillors Andre Chabot and Peter Demong.
• On October 10, 2024, the Government of Alberta and the City of Calgary agreed to advance work from Fourth Street SE to Shepard, on the south leg of the Green Line project.
• On October 11, 2024, downtown commercial property owners requested their input be taken into account regarding a revised downtown alignment.
• On October 29, 2024, Green Line CEO Darshpreet Bhatti announced his departure from the project.
• On November 13, 2024, Minister Dreeshen states that Alberta would have "no Green Line to fund" if Calgary rejects the forthcoming downtown recommendations.
• On November 22, 2024, Minister Dreeshen announced that the province's new, above-ground plan for Calgary's Green Line LRT would be released within weeks.
• On November 25, 2024, Premier Smith remarked that talks about the elevated downtown alignment continued.
• On November 30, 2024, construction industry representatives remarked on the uncertainty introduced by the Green Line wind-down.
• On December 13, 2024, Minister Dreeshen unveiled the new elevated downtown alignment for the Green Line.
  
  • The government's press release was issued the morning of Friday, December 13, 2024.
  • Minister Dreeshen presented his single slide illustrating the province's revised alignment plan.
  • Members of Council did not receive the AECOM report until late Friday evening.
  • Premier Smith warned that "if the city does not approve the new alignment, the project will essentially be dead, stating the UCP government is unwilling to partner on a Green Line that includes downtown tunnelling."
• On December 18, 2024, Calgary City Council instructed City Administration to release a statement:

  • Based on the $6.2 billion rough order of magnitude estimate provided by AECOM, the Province’s external consultant, the City identified $1.3 billion in known costs and risks that were not included in their work. At $7.5 billion, this exceeds the $7.2 billion cost estimate, based on The City’s 60% design for the Shepard to Eau Claire tunneled alignment, presented in July 2024.